Christine Dao, vice provost for enrollment management at UC Oceanview — a fictional, selective University of California system campus — must remove 2,800 students from an 8,000-person admit list after an 18% state funding cut, with offer letters scheduled to mail April 1 and every other cost lever already exhausted. Five senior administrators each advocate a different identity-neutral removal criterion: an absolute AP/IB course count, a contextual rigor ratio, an unweighted-GPA floor on completed A–G coursework, geographic diversity caps, and a holistic review composite. Race-conscious adjustments are prohibited under California’s Proposition 209 and Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard.
Case (A) closes before Dao decides, positioning students to argue a criterion on its merits. Case (B) distributes the adverse-impact analysis the morning after: every criterion produces measurable disparity on at least one admit group, and different criteria harm different groups through different structural mechanisms. Two of the five measure the same construct — academic rigor — and differ only in the denominator. An interactive simulator lets students commit to a position before seeing what it costs, and to whom.
